Tommy’s Top Five Locks: Super Bowl Prop Bets

One of the best gambling days of the year is officially upon us. There is nothing quite like Super Bowl Sunday. Everyone has something to look forward to. Whether if it is the snacks, the commercials, the partying or just the game itself, Super Bowl Sunday should seriously be a national holiday.

For me, and many others, the best thing about Super Bowl Sunday is the gambling. While there will always be a game to bet on, today is extra special. You can bet on the spread, money line or the over/under but for today’s game, it is the extra stuff that gets the true degenerate’s juices flowing.

Prop bets give everyone a reason to be interested. They make things like commercials, the coin toss or the half time show more interesting than they ever should be. Some try to get rich off of them, but me, I am in it for the rush…. And the money.

Here are my top five prop bet locks for Super Bowl LIII

1.Highest Scoring Quarter: Fourth Quarter (+170)

Every Patriots Super Bowl ends up being an exciting game. I see this one being no different. Both teams are going to run the ball early on and feel one another out. However, in the second half, all hell is going to break loose. I see this rounding up in an old school shootout. There will be less long drives and more quick scores and big plays.

2. How many times will McVay’s Age Be mentioned?: Over 1.5 (-220)

I see this happening twice. Because it is Jim Nantz on the call, I feel very confident in this prediction. He is as clean cut and straight edge as they come. He sticks to script and doesn’t get fancy. They will defintley mention McVay’s age the first time the Rams have the ball. I think we can all agree that one is a gimme. However, the second one comes down to one thing, which is if the Rams are able to make it a close game. If they are tied with the Patriots late in the fourth quarter and someone calls a timeout, I can almost guarentee there will be a split screen shot of McVay and Belichick drawing up plays on their respected sidelines. That is where the second mention of his age will come from.

3. First Touchdown: James Develin +4500

I see the Pats starting off this game very similar to how they started off the AFC Championship game. They will get the ball first, establish the run and kill some clock. The only thing different will be that on first and goal, they will run a play action pass. I understand that backfired when they did that on the goal-line against Kansas City but I don’t think that really phased Brady at all. I expect TB12 to do a mini roll out and find James Develin in the flat for an EASY score. This payout is almost daring you to make this bet. If you lose, oh well, but if you win, the rest of the night doesn’t even matter. You probably are betting with house money.

4. Brandin Cooks: Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Patriots defense’s are best known for the ability to take away the opposing offenses best player. We saw that in their last game, when they held Tyriek Hill to just one catch. While Cooks is the Rams best pass catcher, I think New England will be focused primarily on stopping the run. They struggled with that last year against Philly and the Rams duo of Gurley and Anderson has all the hype coming into today.

This leaves Cooks unaccounted for. This is also a big redemption day for Cooks, who was knocked out of last year’s Super Bowl with a concussion and then was dealt to the Rams in the following off season. He wants to show the world that he can make big plays and do so against his former team. I like that narrative. I don’t see him having a big 200 yard game or anything crazy but six catches for 70 yards is easily in his wheel house.

5. Will Rob Gronkowski retire after the game?: Yes (+550)

It is no secret that the big fella has lost a step this season. While he can still make plays, all of those injuries are catching up with Gronk. I think if the Patriots win, he hangs up his cleats for good. The NFL will be weird without Gronk, but he deserves to ride off into the sunset with his SI Swimsuit model girl friend, while they laugh at 69 jokes together.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s